I love award season for no particular reason besides the fact that I love drama and being blasphemously annoyed by who wins or loses despite having almost no qualification to feel that way. That being said, I am really good at guessing patterns in who will win even if it wasn’t the best performance. So, let’s begin with my prediction of who I think will take home an Oscar in March.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
For context, I have not seen The Brutalist or Dune Part 2 nor do I have any desire to see them. Adrian Brody is a proven racist and creep and I don’t care if he’s a good actor, I don’t want to see him in anything. For Dune, I just don’t care for Sci-Fi movies. The best movies on this list that I’ve seen, as a general movie consumer, are Anora and Conclave. Anora was visually stunning, the story was great, the acting was great, it was funny, it was sad, it was everything. This movie holds a very special place in my heart. Conclave was great too, definitely not as entertaining as Anora, but I was pleasantly surprised by how engaged I was. It was like reality TV for Cardinals. That being said, I don’t know if either of those will win this award. I think the Brutalist will probably win, though I’m not sure now because they’re being exposed for using AI. But it’s a classic Oscar bait movie, like the one that no one goes to because it’s so overly saturated toward critics. Plus they already won a bunch of GG’s so that’s usually a tell-tale sign.
Who I want to win: Anora
Who will probably win: The Brutalist
Best Leading Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
I actually watched all of these and I enjoyed all of them except Emilia Perez which I’ll get into later. I liked Demi Moore in the Substance a lot and I thought it was a great horror film- usually horror doesn’t get academy recognition so I think this is really deserved. And even though Demi Moore won the Golden Globe in the musical comedy section, I don’t think she’ll win. The Oscars doesn’t have separate categories for film genres like the Golden Globes, so she’s fighting against some pretty tough competition on the drama side. And the Oscars haven’t taken that many risks yet. I would like it to go to Mikey Madison for reasons I stated earlier, but I think her age is limiting for her. I think voters are more likely to pick someone with more experience acting, which in this case will probably be Fernanda Torres, which I wouldn’t be mad about.
Who I want to win: Mikey Madison
Who will probably win: Fernanda Torres
Best Leading Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
I have no strong thoughts on this category because I find men boring. I would like to see Colmon Domingo take it because I think he’s one of the greatest actors of the last century and he has never had a bad performance. Unfortunately though, the Oscars are all about the campaign and Sing Sing just didn’t get the attention these other films got. I don’t think Timothee Chalamet’s performance really stood out, nor did Sebastian Stans. If he had been nominated for A Different Man I would have other thoughts though.
Who I want to win: Colman Domingo
Who will probably win: Adrian Brody
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
I think this one will be a battle between Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande. All of the others did not stand out (but good still) and I made my thoughts clear on if anyone from The Brutalist deserves an award (they don’t.) Why is Zoe Saldana in consideration? I have no idea. This movie was garbage on all fronts. A French director who wrote a movie about Mexico with no knowledge of the language or culture is the first issue. But also the writing and music were just not good! Listen to the vaginoplasty song. Like, enough said. But critics are loving this movie for some reason and Zoe won the Golden Globe so I’m not sure.
Who I want to win: Ariana Grande
Who will probably win: Zoe Saldana
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
I think this will be A Real Pains pull at the Oscars. I didn’t love this movie, but I did love Kieran Culkin’s performance and I think it’s the best on here. I wasn’t expecting the plot of the movie and for such a funny actor to play such a deep, sad role is just gobsmacking chefs kiss. Without a doubt, Kieran deserves this and he will likely win. Same with supporting actress, all of these were good but none of them stood out to me the way Culkin did.
Who I want to win: Kieran Culkin
Who will probably win: Kieran Culkin
Best Director
Anora, Sean Baker
The Brutalist, Brady Corbet
A Complete Unknown, James Mangold
Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard
The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
Jacques Audiard is a racist, transphobic POS and if he wins I will never watch the Oscars again because it’s rigged. Actually, I don’t think I would be happy if any of these people win. Sean Baker is a right-wing nut who openly doesn’t research the subjects of his movies. Brady Corbet uses AI in his films for easy jobs, and Coralie Fargeat is also right-wing. And I didn’t care for A Complete Unknown. I guess if it has to go to someone, I’ll take the woman? From what I’ve seen, she’s the least extremist of all of them.
Who I want to win: Coralie Fargeat or James Mangold
Who will probably win: Brady Corbet
Who do I think was snubbed?
- Challengers: Challengers should have at least gotten a nomination for best score. I adored that movie, and there are rarely movies I willingly go to for a second, third, or fourth time, but this was one of them. It deserved something.
- Jon M. Chu for Best Director: Wicked was one of the best movie musicals of all time. It was visually stunning, the acting was perfect, the vocals were perfect, all of the sets were hand built-and he got NOTHING? Please take away all of Jon Chu’s suffering and give it to Mr. Emilia Perez.
- Margaret Qualley for Best Supporting Actress: The Substance was one of the few horror movies to be recognized by the Oscars which means it on paper stunned enough to draw critics attention. I watched it and I was obsessed with it, I think at bare minimum it should have gotten the big acting nominations.
- Nicole Kidman for Best Actress: Ok. Do I think she would have won? No. Did I think this movie was perfect? No. But Nicole Kidman was the best part of this movie, her acting was soooooooooo good for such a weird movie.
- Sing Sing for Best Picture: I considered this the best movie out of all the ones nominated, but it got next to no nominations is shameful and it shows that the Oscars really only go off of popularity.
Daniel Craig for Best Lead Actor: I haven’t seen Queer yet but seeing the backlash the Oscars are getting for not nominating Craig, I’m gonna jump on that bandwagon.
